The World Bank said in its latest analysis that India’s GDP is forecast to drop in 2020-21 by 9.6% (altered down since June from a 3.2% plunge), contemplating the impact of the national lockdown due to COVID-19 and small urban service firms and the income disturbance experienced by households.
On Thursday, the growth is estimated to return to 5.4% in Fiscal Year (FY22), assuming coronavirus related restrictions are totally raised by 2022.
Due to the COVID-19 epidemic and the impact of the strict lockdown, the World Bank, investment bank, and other economists have estimated the economy to shrink between 5% to 15% in the current Fiscal Year.
Meanwhile, South Asia is set to fall into its worst-ever recession due to the destructive impact of Covid-19 and presuming millions into poverty and taking too much charge on informal workers. Also, regional growth is expected to undertake by 7.7% in 2020. The report says, a decline by more than 10 percent and remittances is also expected to accelerate the loss of livelihoods for the poorest in some countries.
Besides, all the workers in South Asia are based on informal employment, particularly in transport, retail trade, and hospitality. As the report alerts that the informal workers have little room to cope because of COVID-19 with unexpected shocks and the poor have faced arise in food prices and have experienced sorely. Some of the workers are protected by social insurance, having access to finance, or have savings.
The World Bank Chief economist Hans Timmer said, Covid-19 will profoundly transform South Asia for years to come and leave lasting scars in its economies, but there is a silver lining toward resilient recovery that improve South Asia’s future participation in the global chain.